Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x5778…a682 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,429 (+8%) realized +$2,618 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate91%40W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$268
14 days+$855
30 days+$1,554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$1,292
finance 19% +$419
other 4% +$251
tech 2% +$14
sports 1% −$130
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 62% -5.7%
≤30d 16 +5.8% -4.3% 94% 56% -1.5%
≤90d 18 +6.1% -4.0% 94% 50% -1.6%
all 44 +5.8% -4.2% 91% 41% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 41% -3.2%
10% -13.4% 16% -12.5%
15% -21.8% 5% -20.9%
20% -29.4% 2% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,179) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$224 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$2,831
Realized+$2,618
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses40 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage247d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 84¢ 79¢ $3,020 $2,831 −$189 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $1,201 +$33 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$6 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $140 −$139 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$30 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $98 +$16 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 17 $1,901 +$10 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 15 $2,787 +$309 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 10 $2,727 +$67 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 05 $1,306 +$306 +23%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? Jun 05 $897 +$214 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 03 $1,077 +$231 +21%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? Jun 01 $1,721 +$239 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 25 $1,251 +$116 +9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 19 $663 +$14 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 19 $1,506 +$99 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 01 $1,409 +$98 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 01 $1,292 +$117 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 02 $1,179 +$111 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 01 $992 +$189 +19%
Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 5-11? Jan 12 $942 +$50 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 22-28? Dec 29 $907 +$35 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 15-21? Dec 22 $872 +$35 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 8-14? Dec 15 $706 +$166 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? Dec 08 $500 +$205 +41%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 1-7? Dec 01 $649 −$649 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 24-30? Dec 01 $578 +$71 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 17-23? Nov 24 $497 +$81 +16%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November? Nov 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Solana dip to $160 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $103 +$2 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 31 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 27-November 2? Oct 31 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 27-November 2? Oct 28 $90 +$6 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 27 $177 +$13 +8%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs SAW (BO3) Oct 26 $38 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs MIBR (BO3) Oct 26 $38 +$6 +16%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 20-26? Oct 25 $67 +$9 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 20-26? Oct 22 $63 +$4 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 20-26? Oct 21 $58 +$5 +8%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $52 +$5 +9%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 19 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19? Oct 18 $43 +$11 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 13-19? Oct 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19? Oct 15 $5 +$6 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $680 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $1,157 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $1,217 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1,234 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $27 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $140 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $144 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $114 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $114 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $19 14h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 94¢ $1,911 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $1,201 41h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 93¢ $1,901 41h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 97¢ $3,096 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 87¢ $2,787 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $735 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $2,059 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1,831 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $896 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 90¢ $1,613 12d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? SELL No 62¢ $335 12d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? SELL No 62¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,830.89 · official $2,830.89 (match) · 121 history records