Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x5778…17ff crypto 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$248 (+2%) realized +$248 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate81%116W / 27L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$32
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$221
other 1% −$4
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.6% -10.1% 73% 61% -8.0%
≤30d 86 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 43% -8.0%
≤90d 121 -3.8% -13.0% 78% 31% -8.1%
all 143 -3.2% -12.4% 81% 26% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 26% -8.1%
10% -20.8% 16% -16.9%
15% -28.5% 13% -25.0%
20% -35.5% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses116 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)143 / 146
History coverage117d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $144 +$2 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +65%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $137 +$4 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $134 +$2 +1%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $139 +$2 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $134 +$5 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $146 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $144 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 23h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $1 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $141 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $137 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $136 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $134 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 268 history records