Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
57 0x576f…819a finance 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,499 (-22%) realized −$3,381 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 36L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$202
14 days−$602
30 days−$5,426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% −$3,582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 -72.6% -75.2% 0% 0% -64.9%
≤90d 44 -32.4% -38.9% 18% 14% -31.0%
all 44 -32.4% -38.9% 18% 14% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 14% -31.0%
10% -44.7% 11% -37.6%
15% -50.1% 7% -43.6%
20% -54.9% 5% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$171 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized−$3,381
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage78d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 34¢ 37¢ $128 $140 +$11 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $99 $123 +$24 (+24%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $70 $86 +$16 (+23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $48 $57 +$10 (+21%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $225 $56 −$169 (-75%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $47 $44 −$3 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-41%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 12 $23 −$16 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 12 $27 −$18 -67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 12 $35 −$28 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $349 −$337 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 31 $138 −$138 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 31 $1,653 −$187 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 31 $148 −$148 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $77 −$76 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 25 $101 −$18 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 25 $1,314 −$20 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $102 −$8 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $301 −$259 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 24 $1,669 −$1,557 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 24 $1,832 −$1,599 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $612 −$536 -88%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 24 $294 −$277 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 05 $665 −$48 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 01 $201 −$91 -45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 01 $20 −$3 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 01 $886 −$111 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $1,203 +$2,426 +202%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 24 $234 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 24 $148 +$19 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 24 $212 −$53 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 24 $120 −$48 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 23 $499 +$131 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 22 $346 +$101 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 22 $239 −$23 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 21 $58 +$24 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 21 $123 −$54 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 21 $4 +$2 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 20 $74 −$30 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 20 $241 −$120 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 20 $213 −$127 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 20 $72 −$21 -29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Apr 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 08 $89 −$9 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 07 $15 −$7 -49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 06 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $101 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $39 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $49 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $0 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $8 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.82 · official $546.82 (match) · 783 history records