Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x576e…f8e0 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-9%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$24
politics 25% −$9
sports 15% −$18
crypto 11% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -21.3% -28.8% 0% 0% -25.8%
≤30d 21 -21.3% -28.8% 0% 0% -25.8%
≤90d 21 -21.3% -28.8% 0% 0% -25.8%
all 21 -21.3% -28.8% 0% 0% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 0% -25.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 0% -32.9%
15% -41.9% 0% -39.4%
20% -47.6% 0% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? Jun 16 $17 −$12 -71%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$2 -18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $17 −$4 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -8%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $24 −$3 -12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 16 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $15 −$10 -68%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $162.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 15 $20 −$3 -13%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 −$2 -6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? SELL No 23¢ $5 1h
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? BUY No 78¢ $17 1h
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL No 27¢ $13 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY No 33¢ $17 1h
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $18 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 2h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 2h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 68¢ $7 4h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 69¢ $7 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 56¢ $29 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 57¢ $31 4h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 60¢ $15 4h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 48¢ $12 4h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 59¢ $15 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $5 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $5 5h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes $2 5h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes $3 5h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 30¢ $14 5h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 33¢ $17 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records