Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

57 0x576b…3721 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$280 (+24%) realized +$280 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%14W / 8L

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$53per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$0

7 days+$64

14 days+$241

30 days+$241

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+1.5%	-8.1%	56%	56%	-3.7%
≤30d	22	+39.3%	+26.0%	64%	64%	+9.2%
≤90d	22	+39.3%	+26.0%	64%	64%	+9.2%
all	22	+39.3%	+26.0%	64%	64%	+9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.0%	64%	+9.2%
10%	+14.0%	55%	-1.3%
15%	+2.9%	50%	-10.8%
20%	-7.1%	41%	-19.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +79% → late -0% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs −$38 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$280

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses14 / 8

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage9d

Avg bet$53

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$57	+$15	+26%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$58	−$52	-89%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$58	+$73	+127%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$37	−$37	-100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$155	+$34	+22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$37	−$19	-52%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$26	+$32	+122%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 21	$57	+$47	+81%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 21	$58	−$58	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$57	+$33	+57%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$12	−$12	-100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$37	−$37	-100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$57	−$57	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$37	+$36	+99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$57	+$50	+88%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$94	−$32	-34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$37	+$7	+18%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$63	+$39	+63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$16	+$72	+458%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$83	+$34	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$57	+$24	+42%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$16	+$47	+296%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	93¢	$72	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	69¢	$57	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	4¢	$6	21h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	33¢	$58	21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$58	46h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$37	2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	79¢	$155	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	24¢	$18	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	44¢	$37	2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$26	3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	53¢	$57	3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	42¢	$58	4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	61¢	$57	4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$37	4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	13¢	$12	4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$57	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$37	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$57	6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	22¢	$62	6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	24¢	$58	6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$37	6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	63¢	$43	6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	49¢	$37	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$63	7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$16	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$83	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$57	8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$16	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records