Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5769…5296 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-13%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$16
crypto 39% +$13
other 13% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -17.1% -25.0% 62% 38% -22.8%
all 13 -17.1% -25.0% 62% 38% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 38% -22.8%
10% -32.2% 31% -30.1%
15% -38.7% 23% -36.9%
20% -44.7% 15% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage73d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $28 −$27 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $23 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 14 $23 +$21 +93%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 14 $1 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 14 $22 +$1 +5%
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Central Córdoba: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $22 $0 +2%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 13 $11 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $28 1h
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records