Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5768…a918 crypto 938 markets active 18h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$565 (-5%) realized −$565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%322W / 614L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$148
14 days−$155
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$892
other 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +3.4% -6.4% 39% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 484 +19.0% +7.6% 38% 35% -12.1%
≤90d 936 -1.3% -10.7% 34% 30% -15.9%
all 936 -1.3% -10.7% 34% 30% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 30% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 26% -23.9%
15% -27.0% 22% -31.3%
20% -34.2% 20% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses322 / 614
Open positions0
Markets (closed)936 / 938
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 936 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 8PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$17 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 2PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$53 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$8 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records