Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5768…e453 politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,461 (-1%) realized −$1,461 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,054per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$2
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$107
politics 40% −$66
sports 8% −$1,331
culture 3% −$5
world 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +1.0% -8.7% 13% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 118 -2.8% -12.1% 10% 6% -10.6%
all 118 -2.8% -12.1% 10% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -10.6%
10% -20.5% 6% -19.2%
15% -28.2% 6% -27.0%
20% -35.2% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,565) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$18 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized−$1,461
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,054
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $601 $601 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $787 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,228 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $161 +$1 +1%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $708 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $727 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $819 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,328 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,478 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $656 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $59 +$97 +165%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $417 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $84 +$73 +86%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $340 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $336 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,611 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,101 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,021 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,272 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $44 +$43 +97%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $34 +$37 +109%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $569 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $594 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,086 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,995 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $601 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $786 18h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $787 19h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $615 19h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $616 22h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $820 22h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $821 26h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $801 43h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $802 45h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $644 45h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $645 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $507 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $508 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $707 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $708 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $726 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $161 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $727 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $690 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $691 6d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $607 6d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $608 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $890 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $643 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $644 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $709 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $710 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $855 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.68 · official $600.68 (match) · 336 history records