Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5763…1c22 crypto 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 300d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,846 (+1%) realized +$6,385 · open +$461
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate70%192W / 82L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$2,317per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$8,547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days+$1,022
14 days−$708
30 days+$878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$7,964
other 21% +$13,721
world 11% −$5,053
politics 8% +$2,911
economics 7% +$586
culture 4% −$371
tech 3% +$1,539
sports 1% +$535
finance 1% −$980
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 78% 22% -4.8%
≤30d 34 +6.8% -3.3% 79% 29% -8.5%
≤90d 81 +1.5% -8.2% 77% 21% -9.9%
all 274 +3.1% -6.7% 70% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 25% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 15% -17.6%
15% -23.8% 7% -25.6%
20% -31.3% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,438) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$535 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$8,547
Realized+$6,385
Unrealized+$461
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses192 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)274 / 277
History coverage301d ⚠
Avg bet$2,317
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $4,657 $4,755 +$99 (+2%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 52¢ 64¢ $1,577 $1,945 +$368 (+23%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $1,853 $1,847 −$6 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $834 +$25 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $2,111 −$256 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $6,192 +$412 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $150 +$9 +6%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $303 +$50 +16%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $18 −$11 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $77 +$3 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5,736 +$322 +6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $4,340 +$468 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $220 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $469 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $8,004 −$6,830 -85%
Will STRC market cap hit $14B by June 30? Jun 05 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,352 +$199 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $63 +$3 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23,951 +$4,224 +18%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o Jun 02 $282 −$3 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $9,078 +$673 +7%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $3,097 +$250 +8%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? May 30 $47 +$4 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? May 29 $10 −$5 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $116 +$91 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $131 −$7 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $8 $0 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 24 $113 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $4,962 +$53 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2,480 +$81 +3%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $8 +$11 +150%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $2,746 +$479 +17%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 18 $1,499 +$394 +26%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,029 +$250 +24%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $157 +$44 +28%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,031 −$64 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $3,228 −$415 -13%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 13 $208 −$5 -2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 12 $1,407 +$217 +15%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 11 $1,070 +$90 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $691 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8? May 08 $669 −$482 -72%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 26 $17 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1,193 +$5 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $1,231 +$5 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $1,873 +$270 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $3,009 −$159 -5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $922 +$34 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $5,224 −$220 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $692 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $918 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $238 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $114 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $102 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $278 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $433 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $145 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? SELL Yes 99¢ $859 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4,023 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $4,022 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $4,019 3h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $480 4h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $658 15h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $80 16h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $79 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,297 16h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 86¢ $559 18h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,653 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $458 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,547.32 · official $8,547.32 (match) · 3418 history records