Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5762…e8b9 other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$25
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$30
politics 30% −$24
sports 17% −$8
crypto 6% −$3
culture 4% −$2
economics 4% −$2
finance 3% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 24% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 70 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 148 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 157 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 134
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage98d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $172 −$4 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $213 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $126 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $0 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$3 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $196 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $288 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $48 −$4 -8%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $110 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $382 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $43 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $43 6h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $43 6h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $43 13h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 14h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 19h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $58 19h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $59 25h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 26h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 31h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 32h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $43 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 36h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $47 36h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $59 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $59 2d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $63 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.65 · official $47.65 (match) · 685 history records