Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5761…f951 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-6%) realized −$109 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$180
14 days−$180
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$160
other 9% +$9
sports 9% +$9
politics 7% −$5
economics 4% +$23
weather 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -89.3% -90.3% 0% 0% -90.0%
≤30d 21 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 38% -23.3%
≤90d 24 -21.5% -29.0% 42% 38% -21.9%
all 25 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 36% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 36% -20.1%
10% -34.9% 28% -27.7%
15% -41.2% 20% -34.7%
20% -46.9% 16% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage123d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$30 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 03 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $130 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $27 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 31 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 31 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 31 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $26 +$29 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $105 +$105 +100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 +$2 +9%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $51 +$23 +46%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $51 +$17 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29? May 28 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $103 −$5 -5%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Feb 24 $130 +$9 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $136 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $34 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $112 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $126 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $25 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $10 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $55 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.11 · official $67.11 (match) · 95 history records