Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5759…b4b9 sports 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$2
politics 25% −$2
other 14% −$1
culture 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
world 7% −$1
economics 6% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 137 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage170d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $55 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $214 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $54 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $46 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $55 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $55 20d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $18 28d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $18 28d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $56 36d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $57 39d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 97¢ $49 130d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 98¢ $49 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 97¢ $51 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 97¢ $51 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $56 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $56 130d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $52 130d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $52 130d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $20 130d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $20 130d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $20 130d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $32 130d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $20 130d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $21 130d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $54 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $55 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $55 130d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 130d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 397 history records