Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5757…9e19 weather 884 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,321 (+7%) realized +$3,288 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%498W / 379L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$384
14 days+$860
30 days+$2,001
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$3,059
sports 7% −$230
other 0% −$77
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +28.1% +15.9% 63% 47% -1.2%
≤30d 228 +15.1% +4.1% 68% 44% -2.8%
≤90d 621 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 47% -4.3%
all 877 +2.8% -6.9% 57% 46% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 46% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 35% -13.7%
15% -24.0% 27% -22.0%
20% -31.4% 23% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$1,471
Realized+$3,288
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses498 / 379
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions7
Markets (closed)877 / 884
History coverage126d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 877 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? No 89¢ 88¢ $364 $359 −$5 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 89¢ 96¢ $295 $315 +$20 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? No 96¢ 97¢ $244 $247 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 82¢ 82¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? No 96¢ 94¢ $176 $171 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 20? No 81¢ 85¢ $148 $155 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 64¢ 86¢ $32 $43 +$11 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $73 +$91 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $33 −$15 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 19 $54 −$7 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $86 −$11 -13%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $38 −$15 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 17 $65 −$53 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $88 +$12 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 17 $182 +$49 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $47 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $82 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $325 +$77 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $191 +$68 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $246 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $274 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$288 +1304%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$9 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $55 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $173 +$39 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $33 +$17 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $166 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $376 +$42 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$7 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $96 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $372 −$99 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $36 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $24 +$11 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $181 +$46 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $310 +$69 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$18 +28%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $9 +$134 +1418%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $454 +$58 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $425 +$100 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $73 +$19 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $112 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 80¢ $13 42m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 81¢ $12 42m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $176 44m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 80¢ $24 46m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 82¢ $24 46m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 83¢ $20 47m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 83¢ $16 47m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 84¢ $167 47m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 84¢ $7 47m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $20 56m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 82¢ $180 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 88¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 88¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $113 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $132 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 78¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $164 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 60¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $138 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,470.80 · official $1,470.41 (match) · 3355 history records