Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5754…9238 sports 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$743 (-4%) realized −$743 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%87W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$320
7 days+$316
14 days+$613
30 days+$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,889
other 17% −$462
world 6% −$14
crypto 3% +$321
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +23.5% +11.7% 82% 73% +36.6%
≤30d 36 +1.6% -8.0% 53% 47% +36.6%
≤90d 36 +1.6% -8.0% 53% 47% +36.6%
all 229 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 27% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 27% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 19% -30.4%
15% -40.1% 12% -37.2%
20% -46.0% 7% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$21 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$743
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses87 / 142
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage156d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $188 +$175 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $190 +$81 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $190 +$50 +26%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $149 +$127 +85%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $133 +$134 +101%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $137 −$2 -1%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $9 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $21 +$45 +208%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $12 $0 -3%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 +$3 +42%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $7 +$11 +144%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$3 -25%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $3 +$3 +97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $8 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group C Jun 03 $4 −$1 -27%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $4 $0 -9%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1 $0 +25%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $3 +$1 +34%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jan 15 $40 −$1 -4%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Jan 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 15 $111 −$3 -3%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $93 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $198 $0 -0%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 15 $434 −$4 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 15 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Jan 14 $16 −$1 -8%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jan 14 $100 −$3 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jan 14 $37 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) Jan 14 $581 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $188 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $190 6h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua SELL Enjoy 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 31h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 82¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Infinite 50¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 46¢ $10 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 24¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L BUY against All authority 53¢ $149 7d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner SELL against All authority 100¢ $267 7d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY against All authority 49¢ $133 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FULL SENSE 51¢ $136 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 50¢ $137 8d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 19¢ $2 10d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 61¢ $7 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 30¢ $3 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Top Esports 51¢ $6 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Top Esports 51¢ $6 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $4 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 28¢ $2 10d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY NAVI Junior 43¢ $4 10d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 51¢ $6 10d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 29¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 27¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 27¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3260 history records