Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5754…4f28 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$4
other 23% $0
politics 13% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 35 -2.9% -12.2% 43% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage464d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $3 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $26 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Dec 13 $1 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $8 $0 +6%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 19 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $2 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $26 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $29 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $24 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.89 · official $31.64 (match) · 92 history records