Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x5754…cefb
crypto · 1069 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$893 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$188 · open +$704
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,473
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$704
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses580 / 469
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1049 / 1069
History coverage16d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day157.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 21 History 1049 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$110
14 days−$112
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? No 20¢ 80¢ $132 $523 +$392 (+298%)
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? No 10¢ 78¢ $58 $445 +$387 (+667%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $136 $141 +$5 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 58¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 27¢ 26¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 57¢ 56¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 24¢ 48¢ $8 $15 +$8 (+99%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? Yes 49¢ 27¢ $26 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 13¢ 10¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-19%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 58¢ 19¢ $35 $11 −$23 (-67%)
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Yes 95¢ 72¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-24%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump say "NATO" this week? Yes 98¢ 33¢ $27 $9 −$18 (-66%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 32¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$13 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$17 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $145 +$155 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $119 +$45 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $24 +$20 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $59 −$15 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$6 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$284
sports 27% +$612
other 6% +$696
world 3% −$88
politics 1% +$5
weather 0% −$26
finance 0% −$14
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 6¢ $18 7m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $17 7m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $20 7m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $10 7m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $12 7m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $29 7m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $23 7m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $21 7m
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $20 7m
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $20 7m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $14 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $1 52m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 350 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 52% -8.0%
≤30d 1049 -6.2% -15.1% 55% 48% -8.9%
≤90d 1049 -6.2% -15.1% 55% 48% -8.9%
all 1049 -6.2% -15.1% 55% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 48% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 42% -17.6%
15% -30.7% 36% -25.5%
20% -37.5% 29% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,472.84 · official $1,472.85 (match) · 3500 history records