Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
57 0x5753…fa31 sports 697 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$772 (+6%) realized +$849 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%326W / 340L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$550
14 days−$562
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$297
world 26% +$271
other 16% −$70
politics 13% +$618
crypto 8% +$134
tech 3% −$30
economics 3% +$50
finance 2% −$16
culture 1% $0
weather 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -8.6% -17.3% 26% 13% -55.1%
≤30d 84 +35.5% +22.6% 39% 30% -14.2%
≤90d 331 +6.0% -4.1% 42% 34% -8.3%
all 666 +13.7% +2.9% 49% 36% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 36% -5.3%
10% -7.0% 30% -14.3%
15% -16.0% 26% -22.6%
20% -24.2% 20% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized+$849
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses326 / 340
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions31
Markets (closed)666 / 697
History coverage142d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 23¢ 81¢ $20 $72 +$52 (+257%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 67¢ 100¢ $46 $68 +$22 (+49%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 64¢ 88¢ $47 $66 +$18 (+39%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 88¢ 100¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 77¢ 88¢ $43 $49 +$6 (+14%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+40%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 97¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $38 $33 −$4 (-12%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 37¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 44¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Yes 47¢ 69¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+48%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 59¢ 50¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-78%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 21¢ 12¢ $18 $10 −$9 (-46%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 66¢ 88¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 18¢ 36¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+97%)
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 58¢ 59¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $11 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $10 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Ramp IPO before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $106 +$72 +67%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$15 +44%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $42 +$22 +53%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $25 −$50 -199%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $118 −$60 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $95 +$122 +129%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $25 −$50 -200%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$20 -72%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 13 $7 −$3 -45%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$11 -43%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 13 $8 −$5 -64%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 +$27 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $26 −$20 -78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $18 −$4 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$19 +73%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $25 +$4 +16%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $35 −$6 -18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $51 +$19 +37%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $25 +$2 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $35 +$6 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $112 −$8 -7%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$562 +1403%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$21 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $36 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $25 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $25 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 5h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 BUY Yes 99¢ $30 16h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $35 29h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 100¢ $35 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 30h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 32h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 32h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 32h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 33h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 91¢ $25 34h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 85¢ $25 34h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 34h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 34h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 40h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 40h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 40h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 74¢ $32 40h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 40h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 41h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 12¢ $2 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.27 · official $682.01 (match) · 2904 history records