Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5753…0626 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,579 (-1%) realized −$1,583 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%37W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,158per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$31
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$97
other 39% −$225
sports 11% −$1,224
world 2% −$56
economics 2% −$4
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -3.5% -12.6% 8% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 93 -5.2% -14.3% 4% 1% -10.3%
all 164 -5.0% -14.1% 23% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 8% -10.3%
10% -22.3% 7% -18.9%
15% -29.8% 7% -26.7%
20% -36.7% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,544) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$1,583
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses37 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,158
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $330 $333 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $763 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,972 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,334 −$6 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,865 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,429 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,006 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $2,267 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,204 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,094 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $225 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $529 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,934 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 29 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $527 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $65 +$49 +76%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $416 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $3,326 −$4 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $2,772 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 3h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $821 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $822 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $762 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $763 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $667 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $668 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $806 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $807 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $707 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $708 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $707 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $708 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $835 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $836 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $843 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $844 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $330 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,111 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,112 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,084 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,086 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $844 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $846 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.19 · official $333.19 (match) · 550 history records