Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
57 0x5752…62a3 sports 300 markets active 5d ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$495 (+0%) realized +$495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate65%195W / 105L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$123
14 days−$44
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$1,717
other 25% −$1,168
crypto 1% −$130
world 0% −$109
finance 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.8% -51.9% 50% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 47 -13.2% -21.4% 55% 32% -9.1%
≤90d 120 -3.2% -12.4% 61% 28% -7.3%
all 300 -4.2% -13.3% 65% 24% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 24% -9.3%
10% -21.6% 15% -18.0%
15% -29.2% 9% -25.9%
20% -36.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$35 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses195 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage225d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,078 +$133 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $104 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $89 −$42 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $103 −$57 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $106 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 02 $48 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$4 -89%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $398 +$32 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will New Zealand win? May 30 $565 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 30 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $11 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 30 $1 +$3 +267%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 28 $6 +$3 +54%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $2,137 +$42 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 27 $54 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $23 −$16 -70%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $2,079 +$21 +1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $468 −$58 -12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $84 +$16 +18%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $101 +$18 +17%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $1,528 +$51 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $612 −$40 -7%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 20 $63 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -80%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $54 +$8 +15%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $1,363 +$38 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $67 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $78 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $130 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $130 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $838 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $48 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $48 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1337 history records