Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x574f…6849 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$446 (-9%) realized −$449 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%47W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$409
7 days−$158
14 days−$437
30 days−$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$194
other 22% −$238
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +8.3% -2.0% 46% 46% -12.9%
≤30d 107 +4.5% -5.4% 44% 44% -18.2%
≤90d 107 +4.5% -5.4% 44% 44% -18.2%
all 107 +4.5% -5.4% 44% 44% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 44% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 40% -26.0%
15% -22.7% 31% -33.2%
20% -30.3% 24% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$449
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses47 / 60
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage7d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $77 +$44 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $40 +$27 +68%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$11 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +64%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$32 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$49 +473%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$44 -44%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +54%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $140 −$138 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$47 +47%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 +$35 +342%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$28 +28%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 +$16 +62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$56 +55%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$22 +408%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$35 -69%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$39 +38%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$14 +40%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 +$43 +520%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $43 −$24 -56%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $91 +$28 +30%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$42 +413%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 −$79 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $121 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $77 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 73¢ $66 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 42¢ $40 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 20h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 21h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 21h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $127 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $57 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 27h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.16 · official $163.16 (match) · 188 history records