Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x574f…20ef crypto 207 markets active 6d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$207 (-7%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%35W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$89
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$244
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 45 -62.1% -65.8% 13% 13% -62.4%
≤90d 175 -25.6% -32.7% 18% 18% -28.2%
all 207 -23.4% -30.7% 17% 17% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 17% -25.9%
10% -37.4% 17% -33.0%
15% -43.4% 16% -39.5%
20% -49.0% 15% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$14 · ×4.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses35 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage88d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $19 +$25 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$13 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 27 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 26 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 26 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 638 history records