Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x574e…0436 sports 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$102 (+1%) realized +$97 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%222W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$235
14 days+$235
30 days+$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$31
other 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +87.9% +70.0% 86% 86% +25.9%
≤30d 115 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 49% -5.0%
≤90d 441 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 49% -9.7%
all 441 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 49% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 49% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 44% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 36% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 26% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$1,096
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses222 / 219
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions13
Markets (closed)441 / 454
History coverage45d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Under 51¢ 56¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 55¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Yasmine Mansouri 93¢ 96¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 79¢ 80¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Ipek Oz 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Ruiz 51¢ 50¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Celia Cervino Ruiz 60¢ 50¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Odeta Panasa 55¢ 55¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 194 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $73 +$121 +165%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $100 +$17 +17%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $24 +$104 +442%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Hurghada: Ivan Gretskiy vs Pranav Karthik May 21 $96 +$42 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Maria Timofee May 20 $16 +$41 +250%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Camila Osorio May 20 $96 +$42 +44%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Panna Udvardy May 20 $111 +$17 +16%
Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar May 20 $52 +$41 +79%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 20 $156 −$35 -22%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Fiona Ferro vs Jessica Bouzas Maneir May 20 $36 +$42 +119%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Himeno Sak May 20 $90 +$41 +46%
ITF Estepona: Nahia Berecoechea vs Alba Rey Garcia May 20 $79 +$43 +55%
ITF Litija: Niklas Schell vs Miha Vetrih May 20 $60 +$10 +17%
ITF Estepona: Victoria Allen vs Valentina Losciale May 20 $88 +$43 +49%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Julia Avdeeva May 20 $49 +$42 +86%
ITF Hurghada: Nada Fouad vs Mia Chudejova May 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Karolina Pl May 20 $46 −$45 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gustavo Heide vs Jurij Rodionov May 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Andrea Pellegrino vs Lloyd Harris May 20 $101 +$21 +21%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Bianca Andree May 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin May 20 $52 −$51 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Suzan Lamens May 20 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Luan: Hanyi Liu vs Jake Delaney May 20 $43 +$41 +97%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $84 −$83 -99%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 20 $90 +$41 +46%
ITF Toyama: Moeka Miyata vs Haruka Nishimura May 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Alex Hernandez vs Naoya Honda May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Takasaki: Kanon Sawashiro vs Ayano Shimizu May 20 $37 +$42 +114%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Kriish Tyagi May 20 $26 −$26 -98%
ITF Pelham: Bella Payne vs Anna Rogers May 20 $9 +$41 +442%
ITF Changwon: Reina Goto vs Vaidehi Chaudhari May 20 $40 +$42 +105%
ITF Pelham: Maria Florencia Urrutia vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez May 20 $77 +$44 +57%
ITF Changwon: Mi Jeong Kwon vs Sihyeong Cho May 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $10 +$42 +414%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Iryna Shymanovi May 19 $96 +$42 +44%
Istanbul: Lucas Poullain vs Mili Poljicak May 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Nuria Brancaccio vs Kaitlin Quevedo May 19 $5 +$7 +129%
Spread: North East United FC (-2.5) May 19 $11 +$6 +52%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Yexin Ma May 19 $36 +$41 +114%
ITF Portoroz: Francesca Curmi vs Laura Mair May 19 $61 +$44 +73%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Falcons Force (+1.5) May 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Istanbul: Paulo Dos Santos vs Denis Yevseyev May 19 $43 +$45 +105%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov May 19 $17 +$41 +238%
North East United FC vs. Mohammedan SC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $5 +$5 +101%
North East United FC vs. Mohammedan SC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $6 +$6 +97%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Laura Samson May 19 $29 +$43 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 51¢ $101 1h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $101 1h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) BUY Ruiz 51¢ $91 2h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 60¢ $101 4h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 85¢ $100 7h
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 8h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 61¢ $101 9h
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) BUY Olivieri 37¢ $73 9h
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara BUY Yuno Kitahara 87¢ $100 9h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 79¢ $101 9h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Hyeon Chung 51¢ $101 10h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 52¢ $101 10h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena BUY Odeta Panasa 55¢ $66 11h
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri BUY Yasmine Mansouri 93¢ $100 15h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 61¢ $101 16h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 87¢ $100 16h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 18¢ $24 16h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $102 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $36 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 17h
ITF Hurghada: Ivan Gretskiy vs Pranav Karthik BUY Pranav Karthik 69¢ $96 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Maria Timofee BUY Maria Lourdes Carle 28¢ $16 26d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Camila Osorio BUY Camila Osorio 69¢ $96 26d
ITF Hurghada: Nada Fouad vs Mia Chudejova BUY Mia Chudejova 15¢ $7 27d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Karolina Pl BUY Karolina Pliskova 51¢ $46 27d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta BUY GenOne 63¢ $77 27d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gustavo Heide vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Gustavo Heide 35¢ $22 27d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Bianca Andree BUY Bianca Andreescu 66¢ $8 27d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 64¢ $79 27d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 78¢ $101 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,095.51 · official $1,095.53 (match) · 802 history records