Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x574c…1123 politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$57 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 41% −$7
sports 15% +$81
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -27.7% -34.6% 20% 15% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 15% -7.6%
10% -40.8% 15% -16.4%
15% -46.6% 15% -24.5%
20% -51.8% 15% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$11 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage632d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $562 $562 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $399 $399 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $965 −$1 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Angels vs. Brewers Sep 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Liberty vs. Mercury Sep 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Mar 19 $126 +$99 +79%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Jan 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will there be 170,000,000-175,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Jan 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $108 +$99 +92%
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday? Oct 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $16 +$26 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $562 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $399 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $964 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $965 4h
Trail Blazers vs. Magic BUY Trail Blazers 46¢ $10 228d
Angels vs. Brewers BUY Angels 31¢ $10 283d
Liberty vs. Mercury BUY Liberty 56¢ $5 285d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 345d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 368d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 403d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 403d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 403d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 406d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $6 407d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $6 407d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 407d
Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 408d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 408d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 422d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 422d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 95¢ $5 425d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 95¢ $5 427d
Grizzlies vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 56¢ $126 529d
Canucks vs. Hurricanes BUY Canucks 43¢ $101 532d
Rockets vs. Grizzlies BUY Rockets 52¢ $108 533d
Will there be 170,000,000-175,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President BUY Yes $3 561d
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday? BUY No 46¢ $43 632d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.52 · official $960.52 (match) · 40 history records