Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x5746…2de2 crypto 2221 markets active 4d ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$105 (-5%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%653W / 945L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day114.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$7
14 days+$581
30 days+$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$594
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 43% -12.0%
≤30d 1598 +16.0% +5.0% 41% 40% +20.7%
≤90d 1598 +16.0% +5.0% 41% 40% +20.7%
all 1598 +16.0% +5.0% 41% 40% +20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 40% +20.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.1% 38% +9.1%
15% -14.3% 34% -1.4%
20% -22.7% 30% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses653 / 945
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1598 / 2221
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day114.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1598 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records