Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5741…381c crypto 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,088 (-24%) realized −$1,085 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$120
14 days−$255
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$986
other 3% −$3
politics 2% −$99
world 1% −$46
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.2% -36.9% 40% 20% -28.4%
≤30d 22 -52.4% -57.0% 27% 14% -41.9%
≤90d 22 -52.4% -57.0% 27% 14% -41.9%
all 111 -32.5% -38.9% 32% 25% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 25% -32.8%
10% -44.8% 19% -39.2%
15% -50.1% 16% -45.1%
20% -55.0% 12% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$1,085
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 118
History coverage111d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $43 −$32 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$40 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$16 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $58 −$55 -94%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Mar 12 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 10 $15 −$10 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 10 $45 +$21 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 5AM ET Mar 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 03 $191 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 03 $30 +$29 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 03 $50 −$12 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 03 $136 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 03 $7 +$10 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 03 $111 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.69 · official $113.69 · 363 history records