Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x573e…c6f7 crypto 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$391 (-11%) realized −$387 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%109W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$421
sports 48% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 66 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 44% -10.1%
≤90d 157 -14.7% -22.8% 63% 43% -23.0%
all 170 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 45% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 45% -22.3%
10% -19.3% 27% -29.8%
15% -27.1% 16% -36.6%
20% -34.3% 12% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$676
Realized−$387
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses109 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage90d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $680 $676 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $631 +$25 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $325 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 31 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 31 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 31 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 31 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 31 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 31 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 28 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $3 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $681 25m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $656 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $300 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $330 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $325 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $20 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $13 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $7 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $12 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $14 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $14 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $21 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $31 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.26 · official $676.26 (match) · 380 history records