Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x573e…e08a sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$505 (-11%) realized −$504 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%28W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$113
14 days−$267
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$440
world 21% −$243
other 8% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +40.3% +27.0% 29% 29% -47.2%
≤30d 44 +21.1% +9.5% 30% 30% -21.5%
≤90d 78 -7.7% -16.5% 27% 27% -20.7%
all 100 -13.4% -21.6% 28% 26% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 26% -23.1%
10% -29.1% 24% -30.4%
15% -36.0% 24% -37.2%
20% -42.3% 22% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$32 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$504
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses28 / 72
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage151d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 22¢ 20¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$16 +63%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$15 -15%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 +$26 +634%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $152 −$150 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $20 −$9 -42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $30 +$61 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $10 +$1 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $192 −$95 -50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 8.5 May 28 $38 −$37 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 28 $71 −$70 -99%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 27 $20 +$46 +226%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5 May 27 $102 +$109 +108%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 27 $25 +$18 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $59 +$45 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $51 −$12 -23%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 23 $63 +$151 +238%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $49 −$2 -4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $30 +$25 +83%
Alba Berlin vs. SC RASTA Vechta May 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $10 +$123 +1173%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $31 +$39 +125%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $14 +$86 +600%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $10 −$4 -34%
Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Lithuania come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Finland come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $29 +$41 +145%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Jeremy Stephens win by KO or TKO? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $10 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $20 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $41 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $25 3h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 30¢ $87 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $31 6h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 13h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes $4 14h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 39h
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? BUY Yes $4 10d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $152 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 37¢ $30 15d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $51 15d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 15d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 15d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh SELL Alonzo Menifield 99¢ $91 15d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 32¢ $19 15d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Sumudaerji 50¢ $11 15d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $15 15d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 16¢ $15 15d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Sumudaerji 43¢ $10 15d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 31¢ $10 15d
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai BUY Cameron Smotherman 28¢ $10 15d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 16d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $38 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.64 · official $18.64 (match) · 184 history records