trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +28.7% | +16.5% | 100% | 50% | +2.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +23.7% | +11.9% | 80% | 60% | +8.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 67% | 50% | +7.8% |
| all | 15 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 67% | 47% | +1.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 47% | +1.6% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 47% | -8.2% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 47% | -17.0% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 27% | -25.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $100 | $81 | −$19 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $1,256 | +$94 | +8% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $200 | +$100 | +50% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 08 | $100 | +$100 | +100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET | Jun 02 | $11 | −$7 | -66% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 26 | $100 | +$50 | +50% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET | Apr 01 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 10 | $999 | +$70 | +7% |
| Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 06 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? | Feb 28 | $260 | +$4 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET | Feb 05 | $20 | +$13 | +64% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET | Feb 04 | $20 | +$15 | +73% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET | Feb 04 | $20 | +$10 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET | Feb 03 | $30 | +$14 | +48% |
| Iran strike on Israel in June? | Jun 26 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |