Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x573c…a38f crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$381 (+12%) realized +$400 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$194
14 days+$294
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$228
culture 33% +$19
crypto 10% +$125
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +28.7% +16.5% 100% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 5 +23.7% +11.9% 80% 60% +8.7%
≤90d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 50% +7.8%
all 15 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 47% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 47% +1.6%
10% -20.2% 47% -8.2%
15% -27.9% 47% -17.0%
20% -35.0% 27% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$18 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.21 per $1 lost it wins $5.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$400
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage372d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,256 +$94 +8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $200 +$100 +50%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$7 -66%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $999 +$70 +7%
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 28 $260 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 05 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 04 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 03 $30 +$14 +48%
Iran strike on Israel in June? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $993 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1,001 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $232 31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $289 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $200 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up $3 16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $155 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $150 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 79d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.25 · official $81.25 (match) · 151 history records