Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x5739…5f1a
world · 73 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$64,623 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49,817 · open +$16,060
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$508,719
Realized+$49,817
Unrealized+$16,060
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions36
Markets (closed)42 / 73
History coverage66d
Avg bet$12,745
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 36 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days−$947
14 days+$59,545
30 days+$71,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 64¢ $53,957 $83,563 +$29,606 (+55%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 68¢ 78¢ $64,582 $74,243 +$9,661 (+15%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 94¢ $43,592 $61,433 +$17,840 (+41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $59,589 $58,558 −$1,031 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $29,384 $30,856 +$1,471 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 55¢ 56¢ $29,770 $30,674 +$904 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $28,334 $25,917 −$2,418 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 32¢ $20,071 $21,572 +$1,501 (+7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 49¢ 55¢ $17,668 $19,742 +$2,074 (+12%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $38,861 $14,025 −$24,836 (-64%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $15,508 $13,843 −$1,665 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 49¢ 56¢ $11,618 $13,138 +$1,520 (+13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 38¢ 29¢ $13,196 $9,947 −$3,249 (-25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 66¢ $7,342 $9,642 +$2,300 (+31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 29¢ 32¢ $7,363 $8,226 +$863 (+12%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $7,371 $6,655 −$716 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 26¢ 20¢ $6,052 $4,734 −$1,318 (-22%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 47¢ 78¢ $2,112 $3,508 +$1,395 (+66%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 56¢ $2,605 $2,892 +$287 (+11%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 23¢ $2,667 $1,933 −$734 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 40¢ 46¢ $1,649 $1,876 +$227 (+14%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $1,861 $1,433 −$428 (-23%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $2,046 $1,415 −$631 (-31%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 39¢ 64¢ $833 $1,390 +$557 (+67%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 41¢ 57¢ $983 $1,363 +$380 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5,208 +$108 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $19,960 +$180 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $443 −$443 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $792 −$792 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3,357 +$787 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $2,467 +$247 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51,371 +$41,431 +81%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $31,449 +$5,384 +17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $42,633 +$6,432 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $43,178 +$6,547 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3,130 −$286 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 23 $2,244 −$2,228 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $1,928 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3,955 +$1,045 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3,113 +$11,737 +377%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $5,113 +$998 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $25,396 −$16,887 -66%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 13 $57,385 −$52,764 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $2,760 +$240 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $14,304 −$14,304 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $6,315 +$396 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,231 +$5,502 +170%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $29,059 +$12,900 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $27,137 +$17,010 +63%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $32,203 +$21,551 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $53,292 +$14,395 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 24 $13,054 +$282 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $22,215 +$2,978 +13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 13 $1,102 −$231 -21%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $150 −$66 -44%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $2,035 +$795 +39%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 12 $1,174 −$336 -29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 11 $2,372 +$1,764 +74%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 10 $2,147 −$123 -6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 09 $210 +$84 +40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 09 $5,880 +$3,018 +51%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $6,490 −$5,662 -87%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $4,370 −$2,413 -55%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 07 $5,086 −$4,798 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 07 $1,899 −$1,809 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $3,579 −$2,804 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 80% +$68,130
finance 12% +$39,588
other 7% −$41,882
sports 1% +$107
politics 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $3,595 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $5,287 3h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $2,734 6h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $2,531 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $3 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $46 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1,983 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $14 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $7 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $220 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $6 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $600 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $3 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $22 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $16 20h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $258 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $216 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $13 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $6 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $3 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $584 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $7 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -49.3% -54.1% 50% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 17 +10.5% +0.0% 71% 47% +19.7%
≤90d 42 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 43% -1.2%
all 42 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 43% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 43% -1.2%
10% -17.8% 31% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 24% -19.3%
20% -33.1% 17% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508,719.37 · official $509,192.26 (match) · 3500 history records