Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5739…caca other 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$23
sports 24% −$21
politics 21% −$10
crypto 8% −$7
culture 5% −$3
economics 4% $0
world 3% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 64 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 160 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage165d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $487 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $21 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $91 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $496 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 22 $489 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $759 −$8 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $583 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 20 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $259 −$2 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $259 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $191 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $536 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $346 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 01 $496 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $21 13d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $42 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $42 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 38d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $62 60d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $63 61d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $49 61d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $49 61d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 61d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 61d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 88¢ $48 61d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 61d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 92¢ $28 61d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 92¢ $18 61d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 61d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 62d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $42 62d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $42 62d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 62d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 62d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 62d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $54 62d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $54 62d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 62d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 62d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 723 history records