Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5739…b180 other 420 markets active 0h ago coverage 497d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$265 (+0%) realized +$218 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%138W / 218L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$262
14 days−$190
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$826
sports 34% +$522
economics 7% −$10
crypto 2% +$40
tech 2% −$64
finance 2% +$41
politics 1% +$100
world 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 19% -15.5%
≤30d 118 +4.9% -5.1% 42% 19% -13.0%
≤90d 285 -5.9% -14.9% 44% 20% -10.3%
all 356 -6.7% -15.6% 39% 17% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 17% -10.0%
10% -23.7% 10% -18.6%
15% -31.0% 6% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

497d coverage
Net worth$1,296
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses138 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions64
Markets (closed)356 / 420
History coverage497d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Decibel FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 66¢ 67¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 56¢ 55¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-2%)
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No 70¢ 78¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+13%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 69¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-6%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 41¢ 40¢ $54 $53 −$2 (-3%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 54¢ $33 $48 +$15 (+44%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 78¢ $37 $41 +$3 (+9%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 39¢ $6 $40 +$34 (+575%)
Concrete FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 42¢ 39¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 9¢ 50¢ $7 $38 +$31 (+448%)
Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026? No 83¢ 72¢ $43 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 78¢ 64¢ $44 $36 −$8 (-17%)
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 37¢ 44¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+18%)
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? No 82¢ 76¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-7%)
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B? No 41¢ 48¢ $26 $30 +$5 (+17%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Neutrl FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 73¢ 48¢ $38 $25 −$13 (-34%)
Will Hylo launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 76¢ 70¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 70¢ 62¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 65¢ 66¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Noble FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 87¢ 74¢ $24 $20 −$3 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $69 +$6 +9%
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$25 -17%
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $64 +$4 +7%
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $140 −$54 -39%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $90 +$13 +14%
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $34 −$12 -34%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 16 $188 +$2 +1%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -2%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $44 $0 -1%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $181 −$5 -3%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +20%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $55 +$9 +17%
Stripe IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -23%
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $19 −$8 -45%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 −$5 -14%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$8 -22%
Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $18 +$6 +32%
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 15 $71 −$9 -13%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 15 $29 $0 +2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 14 $199 −$35 -18%
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $167 −$27 -16%
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $210 −$25 -12%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +1%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $86 +$11 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $47 +$9 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $82 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $500 −$78 -16%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Reppo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +34%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $93 +$2 +2%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $77 −$27 -35%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $70 −$4 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $47 −$5 -12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 70¢ $26 4m
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 14¢ $7 25m
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 41m
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 54m
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 57m
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 1h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 1h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $10 1h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $11 1h
Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 53¢ $6 1h
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $13 2h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $19 2h
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 2h
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 80¢ $20 3h
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 72¢ $26 3h
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $33 3h
Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $21 5h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 5h
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 5h
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 5h
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 5h
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 6h
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 6h
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 6h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 6h
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 7h
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $38 8h
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,295.92 · official $1,293.89 (match) · 2537 history records