Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x5733…4c87 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,466 (+31%) realized +$6,361 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$588per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$6,381
crypto 10% −$854
other 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 38% +15.2%
≤30d 34 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 38% +15.2%
≤90d 34 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 38% +15.2%
all 34 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 38% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 38% +15.2%
10% -34.0% 38% +4.2%
15% ← realistic here -40.3% 35% -5.9%
20% -46.2% 29% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$782 vs −$272 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$934
Realized+$6,361
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$588
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 48¢ $679 $659 −$20 (-3%)
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $150 $275 +$125 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $438 −$428 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $399 +$42 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $69 −$67 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $257 −$251 -98%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $599 +$176 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,480 +$932 +63%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $638 +$1,162 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $312 −$200 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $449 −$442 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,034 +$906 +88%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $495 +$541 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $468 +$344 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5,198 +$2,833 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $761 −$750 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $357 +$808 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,748 +$944 +54%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $591 −$579 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $272 −$267 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $746 +$1,517 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $140 −$135 -96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $495 +$400 +81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $351 −$344 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $841 −$832 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $307 +$129 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $486 +$212 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $249 −$39 -16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $209 −$204 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $689 35m
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 36m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $438 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $440 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 89¢ $399 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $69 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $257 2h
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $775 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $599 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $2,413 2h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 100¢ $639 2h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,059 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $1,480 3h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 35¢ $638 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $74 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $449 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $1,939 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $1,034 6h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $1,036 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 86¢ $812 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $933.78 · official $933.78 (match) · 87 history records