Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

57 0x5733…f2e5 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$89 (+17%) realized +$87 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-14.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-5.9%	-14.9%	50%	44%	+3.2%
≤30d	18	-5.9%	-14.9%	50%	44%	+3.2%
≤90d	18	-5.9%	-14.9%	50%	44%	+3.2%
all	18	-5.9%	-14.9%	50%	44%	+3.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.9%	44%	+3.2%
10%	-23.0%	33%	-6.6%
15%	-30.5%	28%	-15.7%
20%	-37.3%	28%	-23.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -26% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$22

Realized+$87

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage5d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	+$3	+18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$20	−$4	-22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$12	+57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$30	+$31	+103%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$46	−$22	-48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-43%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$5	+26%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$20	+$2	+10%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$70	+$14	+21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$56	−$5	-9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$41	−$15	-37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$41	+$42	+104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$26	+$14	+53%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$51	+$31	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	70¢	$18	1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	58¢	$15	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$11	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	28¢	$5	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	78¢	$12	4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	67¢	$20	4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$10	4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	81¢	$10	23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Ciryl Gane	99¢	$62	23h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	23¢	$5	24h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	48¢	$30	24h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	11¢	$5	25h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Derrick Lewis	6¢	$5	25h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	22¢	$20	25h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Derrick Lewis	21¢	$19	25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	9¢	$1	27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	66¢	$26	27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	27h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL Yes	32¢	$22	47h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	47h
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	2¢	$1	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	6¢	$3	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	14¢	$4	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	10¢	$3	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.75 · official $21.75 (match) · 65 history records