Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5730…58e2 other 52 markets active 3h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$4
other 35% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 20 +51.4% +37.0% 25% 5% -9.8%
all 52 +14.3% +3.4% 38% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 2% -10.0%
10% -6.5% 2% -18.6%
15% -15.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -23.8% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage474d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $17 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $64 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $8 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $5 $0 -4%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -92%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 18 $9 $0 +1%
Starmer out before July? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $89000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $18 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $18 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $1 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $29 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $30 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $32 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $29 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $20 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records