Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5730…6c73 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 48% -17.1%
≤30d 31 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 48% -17.1%
≤90d 31 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 48% -17.1%
all 31 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 48% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 48% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 45% -25.0%
15% -32.3% 45% -32.3%
20% -39.0% 42% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 35¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 0¢ 8¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.01 · official $6.79 (match) · 63 history records