Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x572f…78fb crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate70%110W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$20
sports 1% +$2
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 38% -10.6%
≤30d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 38% -10.6%
≤90d 157 -0.1% -9.6% 70% 47% -10.5%
all 157 -0.1% -9.6% 70% 47% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 47% -10.5%
10% -18.3% 24% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 15% -26.9%
20% -33.4% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses110 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage63d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 19 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $14 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 486 history records