trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 62¢ | 54¢ | $53 | $46 | −$7 (-14%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $4 | +$1 | +26% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $15 | −$11 | -76% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 13 | $248 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | May 05 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 02 | $242 | +$13 | +5% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | Apr 27 | $242 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | Apr 17 | $11 | −$2 | -22% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? | Apr 17 | $20 | −$5 | -23% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 14 | $247 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Apr 13 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap | Apr 13 | $10 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 13 | $100 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Apr 13 | $1 | $0 | +29% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Apr 12 | $536 | −$536 | -100% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Apr 11 | $242 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 30 | $236 | +$6 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Mar 17 | $212 | +$14 | +6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 17 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? | Mar 10 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 09 | $10 | +$5 | +48% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Mar 07 | $211 | +$6 | +3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? | Mar 03 | $207 | +$4 | +2% |
| Khamenei seen in public by March 1? | Mar 01 | $196 | +$10 | +5% |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Feb 28 | $82 | +$2 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -36.9% | -42.9% | 50% | 25% | -14.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -36.9% | -42.9% | 50% | 25% | -14.4% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 58% | 16% | -29.1% |
| all | 25 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 68% | 16% | -23.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 16% | -23.8% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 12% | -31.1% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 4% | -37.7% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 0% | -43.8% |