Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
57 0x5729…b054 sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$739 (-7%) realized −$759 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%26W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$326
7 days+$205
14 days+$3
30 days−$813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$880
other 23% +$187
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 40% -6.0%
≤30d 62 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 40% -16.9%
≤90d 62 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 40% -16.9%
all 62 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 40% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 40% -16.9%
10% -30.0% 40% -24.9%
15% -36.7% 39% -32.1%
20% -42.9% 35% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$129 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$759
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses26 / 36
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ 64¢ $132 $152 +$20 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $134 −$132 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$106 +52%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $114 +$102 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $102 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $461 +$230 +50%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $234 +$227 +97%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $247 −$243 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $365 +$277 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $243 +$163 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $117 +$109 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $112 +$113 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $114 −$112 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $127 −$125 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $152 +$121 +79%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $139 +$102 +73%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $112 −$110 -99%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $213 −$210 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $61 −$50 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $102 +$168 +165%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $102 +$142 +140%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $51 +$166 +325%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$157 +307%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $145 +$172 +119%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $503 −$498 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $341 +$163 +48%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $202 +$131 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $21 −$20 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $140 +$91 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ $134 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $134 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $114 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $103 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $102 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $461 20h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 50¢ $234 22h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 60¢ $162 25h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 51¢ $247 27h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $642 27h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 56¢ $365 28h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 27¢ $41 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $406 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $243 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $107 44h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $112 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $31 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 15¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $117 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $73 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $102 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $56 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 49¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 57¢ $203 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $114 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.04 · official $152.04 (match) · 93 history records