Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5729…5b3c sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-5%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$38
other 29% −$58
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 47% -12.8%
≤30d 57 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 47% -12.8%
≤90d 57 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 47% -12.8%
all 57 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 47% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 47% -12.8%
10% -20.9% 42% -21.2%
15% -28.6% 37% -28.8%
20% -35.6% 23% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 −$1 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$3 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 +$3 +9%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 +$1 +9%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 +$2 +112%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $4 +$2 +48%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $10 +$6 +62%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $4 +$4 +109%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 +$6 +54%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$11 -74%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -24%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$22 -72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $7 +$3 +49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $25 +$12 +47%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $7 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $19 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$5 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +138%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$5 -78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $19 −$13 -68%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +61%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $41 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $35 +$1 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 +$2 +71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -82%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +81%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $3 +$1 +44%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 30¢ $11 2m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 37m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 41m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 87¢ $13 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 64¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $37 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 93¢ $13 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $12 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 70¢ $4 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 33¢ $2 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 33¢ $0 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $6 18h
Spread: France (-5.5) SELL France 0¢ $0 18h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 58¢ $17 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 21h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $10 23h
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 10¢ $1 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $3 39h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records