Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5728…f4bb crypto 55 markets active 11h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$207 (-14%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%30W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$18
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$227
sports 4% +$4
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.2% -6.7% 73% 18% -2.7%
≤30d 28 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 21% -8.2%
≤90d 39 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 28% -6.6%
all 55 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 27% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 27% -22.8%
10% -27.8% 16% -30.2%
15% -34.7% 15% -36.9%
20% -41.1% 7% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses30 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage112d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $45 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $40 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $29 −$10 -35%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $64 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 03 $36 +$23 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 03 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 05 $8 +$7 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 05 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 04 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 04 $24 −$15 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 04 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 04 $8 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 25 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 25 $12 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Feb 25 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 25 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 25 $39 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 25 $34 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Feb 25 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 25 $100 −$36 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 25 $114 −$73 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 25 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 832 history records