Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x5727…ae78 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%20W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,610per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$4
world 0% +$21
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 10% -4.9%
all 21 +1.0% -8.7% 95% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×203.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4064.26 per $1 lost it wins $4064.26
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses20 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,610
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 07 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $131 +$21 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 21 $35,090 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $365 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $114 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $114 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 40d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 40d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 45d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 60d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 64d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 99¢ $43 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 73d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $131 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $132 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $109 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $109 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $5 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $11 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $146 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $508 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $11 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $514 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $513 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $31 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $30 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $30 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $24 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $65 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.55 · official $111.55 (match) · 219 history records