Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5727…12fd sports 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$59 (-6%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -34.2% -40.4% 38% 31% -15.0%
≤30d 16 -34.2% -40.4% 38% 31% -15.0%
≤90d 16 -34.2% -40.4% 38% 31% -15.0%
all 16 -34.2% -40.4% 38% 31% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.4% 31% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -46.1% 31% -23.1%
15% -51.3% 25% -30.6%
20% -56.1% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$43 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $98 +$107 +109%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 −$90 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $98 +$6 +6%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $67 +$94 +140%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $77 +$25 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $64 −$22 -34%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $58 +$22 +39%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $79 −$79 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $190 +$115 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 11 $31 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $45 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $46 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $49 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $12 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $4 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $4 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $9 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 5d
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 79¢ $79 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 69¢ $40 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $57 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $0 5d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 75¢ $77 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $52 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $55 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 26¢ $27 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $61 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $44 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 6d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 55¢ $31 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 61¢ $63 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 61¢ $63 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $28 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $8 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 22¢ $23 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 63¢ $65 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records