Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

57 0x5724…b563 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$731 (+75%) realized +$812 · open −$81

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +142% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +111% what you keep after slip

Net edge+111%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$319

7 days+$841

14 days+$725

30 days+$725

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+119.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+182.5%	+155.6%	82%	82%	+95.7%
≤30d	20	+142.5%	+119.4%	70%	70%	+66.3%
≤90d	20	+142.5%	+119.4%	70%	70%	+66.3%
all	20	+142.5%	+119.4%	70%	70%	+66.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+119.4%	70%	+66.3%
10%	+98.4%	60%	+50.4%
15%	+79.2%	60%	+35.9%
20%	+61.7%	60%	+22.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +142% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +44% → late +241% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$45 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$812

Unrealized−$81

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 24

History coverage8d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Morocco	51¢	50¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Under	51¢	0¢	$30	$0	−$30 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 30	$31	+$73	+238%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 30	$204	+$353	+173%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$102	−$80	-78%
Paraguay leading at halftime?	Jun 29	$37	+$6	+16%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 29	$100	+$18	+18%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 29	$51	−$50	-98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$51	+$29	+57%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal?	Jun 28	$21	+$379	+1845%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 27	$10	+$6	+60%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 27	$10	+$10	+101%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$20	+$30	+146%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st H	Jun 27	$5	+$7	+132%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$20	+$40	+197%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$20	+$24	+118%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$10	+$16	+158%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 27	$5	+$6	+123%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$31	−$21	-68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$101	−$85	-84%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Morocco	51¢	$20	20m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	59m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	51¢	$30	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	6¢	$22	5h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	29¢	$31	5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	29¢	$102	5h
Paraguay leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	47¢	$102	6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$118	6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	26¢	$102	6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	85¢	$100	6h
Paraguay leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	86¢	$37	6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	35¢	$51	6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	63¢	$51	2d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	2d
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	49¢	$10	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	40¢	$20	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$10	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	62¢	$26	2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	33¢	$20	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$44	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st H	BUY	42¢	$5	3d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	45¢	$20	3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	38¢	$10	3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$11	3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1	BUY	65¢	$1	3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	44¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	8d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	SELL Egypt	11¢	$10	8d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	33¢	$31	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.49 · official $19.49 (match) · 43 history records