Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5724…1b0b world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$5
sports 23% −$1
other 22% −$5
politics 20% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 30% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 31 -0.9% -10.4% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 51 -1.6% -11.0% 39% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage526d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $19 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $34 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $5 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $12 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $73 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $215 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $449 −$2 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $7 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Apr 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 12 $7 $0 -4%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Mar 03 $8 +$2 +30%
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Feb 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-11? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Makhachev vs. Moicano Feb 05 $8 +$1 +11%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 19 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $14 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $14 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $19 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $9 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $31 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $21 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $14 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $20 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records