Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5724…56ec weather 561 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$24 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%116W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day78.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$42
14 days−$44
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$179
crypto 6% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 313 -25.1% -32.3% 27% 27% -22.0%
≤30d 475 -33.9% -40.2% 21% 20% -43.4%
≤90d 490 -30.1% -36.7% 24% 23% -40.1%
all 490 -30.1% -36.7% 24% 23% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 23% -40.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 22% -45.8%
15% -48.3% 22% -51.0%
20% -53.4% 21% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses116 / 374
Open positions12
Markets (closed)490 / 561
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day78.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on June 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 6? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 6? Jun 16 $0 −$2 -891%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C or higher on June 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -133%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 6? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 6? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C or below on June 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.87 · official $3.88 (match) · 3500 history records