Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5723…a907 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 32% +$1
politics 24% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +0.4% -9.1% 26% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage273d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $43 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $40 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $43 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $27 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $43 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.89 · official $41.90 (match) · 147 history records