Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5723…78ee crypto 798 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-2%) realized −$300 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%405W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$6,785
14 days−$5,875
30 days−$1,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -78.4% -80.4% 11% 11% -87.3%
≤30d 649 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -16.9%
≤90d 795 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 50% -14.2%
all 795 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 50% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 50% -14.2%
10% -20.8% 48% -22.4%
15% -28.4% 48% -29.9%
20% -35.5% 48% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$300
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses405 / 390
Open positions3
Markets (closed)795 / 798
History coverage49d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 44¢ 12¢ $27 $8 −$19 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$28 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$27 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$27 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$33 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$22 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$42 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$23 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$25 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$29 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$23 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$22 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$26 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$14 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$28 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $28 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $30 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $24 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $23 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $23 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $24 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.78 · official $40.84 · 1560 history records