Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5721…f1c5 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%53W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$4
other 7% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$8
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 69 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses53 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage520d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 22 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 23 above $690? Mar 01 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on February 18? Feb 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $2 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 -17%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Jul 03 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $111 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $111 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $111 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $111 4d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $111 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $111 14d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $110 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $110 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $110 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $110 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $110 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $110 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $110 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $110 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $110 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $109 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $109 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $109 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $109 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $109 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $109 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $109 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $109 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $109 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $108 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $108 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $108 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.36 · official $111.36 (match) · 157 history records