Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5721…744e other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 34% $0
finance 7% $0
politics 6% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.6% -6.3% 38% 12% -9.8%
≤30d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 27% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 27% 9% -9.9%
all 27 -7.2% -16.0% 52% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 4% -9.9%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage461d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $80 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 22 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%? Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 20 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $33 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $27 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $27 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $22 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $29 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $31 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $23 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records