Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

57 0x571e…ae3b sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$133 (-4%) realized +$41 · open −$174

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%8W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$205per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$38est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$42

7 days+$42

14 days−$195

30 days−$109

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-3.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+31.0%	+18.5%	100%	100%	+18.5%
≤30d	14	+6.4%	-3.7%	57%	57%	-13.0%
≤90d	14	+6.4%	-3.7%	57%	57%	-13.0%
all	14	+6.4%	-3.7%	57%	57%	-13.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.7%	57%	-13.0%
10%	-13.0%	57%	-21.3%
15%	-21.4%	43%	-28.9%
20%	-29.1%	36%	-35.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +45% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$135 vs −$198 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$41

Unrealized−$174

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses8 / 6

Est. fees paid−$38

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage17d

Avg bet$205

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	Kyoji Horiguchi	39¢	0¢	$174	$0	−$174 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	Jun 21	$136	+$42	+31%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$103	−$102	-98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 07	$138	−$136	-98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main	Jun 07	$399	−$393	-99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai	Jun 07	$253	+$146	+58%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jun 07	$442	−$438	-99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 07	$133	+$112	+84%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Jun 06	$51	−$50	-98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P	Jun 06	$448	+$186	+42%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig	Jun 06	$344	+$104	+30%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$103	+$203	+197%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5	Jun 06	$207	+$171	+82%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 04	$69	−$67	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$69	+$113	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Kyoji Horiguchi	39¢	$178	48m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	SELL Navajo Stirling	99¢	$178	49m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	BUY Navajo Stirling	75¢	$136	1h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	39¢	$103	11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Hurricanes	47¢	$102	13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Hurricanes	36¢	$37	13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main	BUY Belal Muhammad	52¢	$399	14d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai	SELL Brendan Allen	99¢	$399	14d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)	BUY Farés Ziam	74¢	$442	14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main	SELL Bryce Mitchell	99¢	$244	14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Bryce Mitchell	53¢	$133	14d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai	BUY Brendan Allen	62¢	$253	14d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)	BUY John Yannis	23¢	$51	14d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P	BUY Jeisla Chaves	70¢	$448	14d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig	SELL Ketlen Souza	99¢	$448	14d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig	BUY Ketlen Souza	75¢	$344	14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5	SELL Over	100¢	$378	14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5	BUY Over	54¢	$207	15d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	33¢	$103	15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Golden Knights	40¢	$69	16d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$69	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.22 (match) · 24 history records